NZ Rugby World column, April 2007

I've spent the first two months of this year criss-crossing the Atlantic, combining Saatchi & Saatchi client meetings in Europe with snatched visits to the Six Nations.

The tradition and history of the tournament is so strong that it is surviving even the vagaries of silly television driven kick-off times and 9:00pm Sunday night kick-offs in Paris. None of these do much for me, frankly, and I think most players and almost all spectators find it confusing, disruptive and tedious. But the aura of the tournament and the historical rivalries are so strong that attendances remain vibrant and passions continue to soar. Unfortunately, the rugby has not lived up to the hype. England has been consistently shambolic. The feverish hysteria that greeted Wilkinson's return against a dismal Scotland was hushed as performances deteriorated and injuries took their toll. The team lack pace, creativity and belief. The USA Eagles play them first up in September and maybe Peter Thorburn and the boys should be targeting England as the game to win in our group, especially given the rest of the group comprises South Africa, Samoa and Tonga!

The Scots have been dismal and go from bad to worse. They lack quality at 9 and 10 and have no penetration in the backs whatsoever. The front row is pedestrian and I'm looking forward to the All Blacks visit to Murrayfield as I think the run out against Scotland will give us a great opportunity to get rhythm and flow our game.

The Welsh have been totally inconsistent and are probably 30-40 points away from the All Blacks. And the French have been the French. A hard working pack, some exciting backs, lots of flair, and very difficult to predict and understand. I don't envy the All Black coaches analysing their games because Laporte's game plan rotation policy changes so regularly, it's very hard to figure out which France will be coming at you.

Their group of death at the World Cup is building into a real talking point. How will Argentina go against them in their opening game? The Argentineans will be injury free, desperate, hungry and up for it. The French could be overwhelmed by the whole occasion or they could rise to it. I'm picking a shock Argentina win which will then put tremendous pressure on France to win against Ireland. What makes it even more intriguing, of course, is that the All Blacks will play the runner up in the group in the Quarter Finals. I think this is terrific for New Zealand as it will really put us on our toes and ensure we go into the semi with a tough game under our belt and some momentum.

Ireland are a powerful side with strength at lock, the back row, half back and the best centre pairing in the Six Nations. Where they are vulnerable is in depth. With two tough games against Argentina and France, they'll hope that guys like O'Driscoll, O'Gara, Stringer and O'Connell can come through the qualifiers injury free. They could go all the way to Stade de France on October 20.

The greatest joy to me has been the performance of Italy. I became quite close to the Italian squad for three seasons when John Kirwan was coaching them and one of my favorite all-time players is the half back, Alessandro Troncon. He is an exuberant, passionate character and has played 94 times for Italy. He was brought back into the side by Berbizier after the French game and won man of the match awards against England and Scotland. The way he celebrated Italy's first ever away win against Scotland was an example to all of us of inspiration, commitment, belief and passion. And they've got the best back now in the Six Nations. Penissi is the real deal. They'll give the AB's a good hit out in September.

So joy for the Italians, optimism for the Irish and the French, and despair for England, Scotland, and Wales.

I've not seen any real signs of new breakthrough individuals or creative innovation on the field and there is still plenty of concern for Northern Hemisphere sides in terms of player burnout, too many games, club versus country, etc. I hope that we can benefit from the training regime the All Blacks are currently undergoing and stretch the gap even further so that we repeat 1987 by comprehensively beating every side we play against. 20 or 30 point margins would be very tasty.

On a more prosaic note. USA Rugby preparations continue and I spent a great weekend in San Diego where USA Rugby hosted the World Seven's Tour. The Eagles won a couple of games and are showing signs of improvement. We have a very thorough World Cup preparation in place under Peter Thorburn and Nigel Melville and are looking forward to what is the toughest group you could imagine. Mike Cron and Mick Byrne are currently up in the US for two weeks coaching players and coaches in the art and science of scrummaging and kicking. Two things we will need to do well against the Africans, English and Pacific Islanders. It's really terrific of New Zealand rugby to let us have this technical assistance and a great example of how the Union is looking forward and outwards. (Not necessarily something rugby unions have been famous for to date.)

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